NVIDIA Q4 Earnings Preview: AI Boom and Market Expectations

Andrew Chu February 25, 2025

NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) is set to release its Q4 earnings report for the fiscal year 2025 on February 26, 2025, after the market closes. As a leader in artificial intelligence (AI) and data center technologies, NVIDIA’s financial performance is under intense scrutiny, with investors eager to see if the company can sustain its strong growth trajectory.

1. Market Expectations

Analysts forecast that NVIDIA will report revenues of approximately $38.02 billion, representing a 62% year-over-year (YoY) growth. Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be around $0.845. The primary driver of this growth is NVIDIA’s data center segment, which is expected to contribute roughly $33 billion, accounting for 88% of total revenue.

2. Key Factors to Watch

2.1. Demand for Blackwell Chips

NVIDIA has been making headlines with its latest AI-focused Blackwell chip series, which is anticipated to generate billions in revenue. Compared to competitors’ offerings, Blackwell chips boast superior performance in AI model training and inference, leveraging advanced architectures and power efficiency. These chips are particularly in demand for large-scale cloud computing, autonomous vehicles, and high-performance AI applications in scientific research. Investors will closely monitor management’s commentary on production capacity and demand trends, particularly in the AI and cloud computing sectors.NVIDIA has been making headlines with its latest AI-focused Blackwell chip series, which is anticipated to generate billions in revenue. Investors will closely monitor management’s commentary on production capacity and demand trends, particularly in the AI and cloud computing sectors.

2.2. Competitive Landscape and DeepSeek’s Impact

The rise of cost-efficient AI training models, such as DeepSeek-v3 from China, has recently triggered fluctuations in NVIDIA’s stock price. Market participants will be looking for NVIDIA’s response to these emerging competitors and how they might impact the company’s long-term dominance in AI hardware. To counter competitive pressures, NVIDIA has been investing heavily in research and development, forging strategic partnerships with cloud service providers, and expanding its AI software ecosystem. These efforts aim to strengthen its competitive position and maintain technological leadership in the AI and data center markets.The rise of cost-efficient AI training models, such as DeepSeek-v3 from China, has recently triggered fluctuations in NVIDIA’s stock price. Market participants will be looking for NVIDIA’s response to these emerging competitors and how they might impact the company’s long-term dominance in AI hardware.

2.3. Forward Guidance and Market Outlook

Beyond the current quarter’s results, investors will be paying close attention to NVIDIA’s forward guidance. With strong macroeconomic headwinds and potential supply chain constraints, management’s outlook on future growth will be a critical factor in determining the stock’s direction.

3. Stock Performance and Market Sentiment

Ahead of the earnings report, NVIDIA’s stock has experienced volatility. As of the latest trading session, NVIDIA shares were priced at $126.63, reflecting a 2.86% decline. The stock’s intraday high reached $131.94, while the low stood at $124.59. Investors will be closely watching post-earnings movements to gauge market reactions.

If NVIDIA meets or exceeds earnings expectations, its stock price could experience a significant uptick, potentially testing resistance levels around $140-$145. However, if the company underperforms or provides weaker-than-expected guidance, shares may drop toward the $120 range or lower. Market sentiment will largely be influenced by AI chip demand projections and NVIDIA’s competitive positioning in the sector.

Conclusion

With AI adoption accelerating and NVIDIA leading the charge in high-performance computing, the upcoming earnings report will serve as a key indicator of the company’s future trajectory. While strong demand for AI chips presents significant growth opportunities, key risks include increasing competition from emerging AI hardware manufacturers, potential regulatory challenges, and macroeconomic headwinds. Whether NVIDIA meets, exceeds, or falls short of expectations will significantly influence investor confidence and stock performance in the coming months.

With AI adoption accelerating and NVIDIA leading the charge in high-performance computing, the upcoming earnings report will serve as a key indicator of the company’s future trajectory. Whether NVIDIA meets, exceeds, or falls short of expectations will significantly influence investor confidence and stock performance in the coming months.